Today in Markets & Money: Retirement Math in a 4% World
Ethan Teng
Published September 18, 2025
1 min read
🏷️ Inflation Expectations
The CPI sits at 323.36 (core 329.79). Long-term inflation forecasts remain steady:
- 1 year: 2.81%
- 5 years: 2.33%
- 10 years: 2.29%
- 30 years: 2.41%
Translation: no runaway inflation lurking. Retirement planning math is way easier when you can assume costs rise at ~2–2.5%.
💸 What this means for your wallet:
Your future grocery bill will still sting, but it won’t bankrupt you. Predictability makes long-term planning less of a guessing game.
💵 Treasury Yields (The Long View)
- 1-year: 3.62%
- 5-year: 3.59%
- 10-year: 4.04%
And the Fed just trimmed its target rate to 4.0–4.25%. That means today’s 4%+ bond yields may not be around forever.
💸 What this means for your wallet:
If you’re building retirement income, locking in some long-term Treasuries now could give you stability even if rates slide later.
📈 Stocks vs. Bonds
The US500 rose to 6,626 points (+0.38% on the session, +15.96% YoY). Stocks are still running hot. Bonds are finally paying something. For once, you actually have choices.
💸 What this means for your wallet:
You don’t have to gamble on 100% stocks to beat inflation anymore. A balanced portfolio makes sense again.
🏡 Retirement & Housing Context
Mortgages are still averaging 6.35%, and Goldman Sachs predicts home prices will rise another 4.4% this year. For retirees thinking about downsizing or relocating, housing affordability isn’t going to get easier.
🧾 Bottom Line
Inflation is tame, long-term bonds yield ~4%, stocks are still strong, and mortgage rates are stubborn. Retirement planning is about tradeoffs, but right now you’ve got more tools than just “hope stocks keep running.”
💡 Money Move of the Day
Rebalance your portfolio. Trim a bit from equities if you’re overweight and add long-term bonds while yields are attractive.
👋 This is why I built Ask Linc — an AI investing app that takes your actual portfolio + today’s market and answers the real question:
👉 “Should I shift more into bonds at today’s yields?”
That’s the kind of retirement math Ask Linc makes clear → asklinc.com