The Fed’s Stuck in Rate-Limbo: Cut or Nah?

Economic Indicators

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is holding at 322.13, with core CPI (ex-food and energy) a bit higher at 328.66. Inflation for the past 12 months sits steady at 2.7%.

Rates aren’t budging much either:

• Fed Funds Rate → 4.33%
• Treasury Yields → 1-year: 3.93%, 5-year: 3.86%, 10-year: 4.34%
• 30-year mortgage → 6.58%

👉 What this means for your wallet: borrowing costs are still elevated, especially on mortgages, and long-term savers will notice CDs and bonds hanging around the same yield band as last week.

Market Trends

Inflation expectations remain modest:

• 1-year: 2.59%
• 5-year: 2.13%
• 10-year: 2.11%
• 30-year: 2.30%

The S&P 500 slipped 0.54% to 639.81, with ~69.7M shares traded.

👉 What this means for your wallet: markets are taking a breather — not a sell-off, just cautious trading as investors wait for more signals from the Fed.

Key Developments

The Fed is caught in a balancing act:

• Some expect at least three rate cuts this year.
• Others think no cuts until inflation returns to 2%.

Mortgage rates are still the big story — above 6.5%, down a hair this week but stuck near 7% for months.

👉 What this means for your wallet: if you’re house-hunting, don’t expect relief just yet. Refinancing windows remain narrow, and affordability is still under pressure.

Market Outlook

Overall, inflation is steady, rates are steady, and markets are cautious. The Fed’s next moves will decide whether we stay in this “higher for longer” environment or finally see rates come down.

👉 Bottom line for your wallet: stability isn’t bad, but it’s not cheap either. Think long-term, stay patient, and watch the Fed like everyone else.