Rate Cut Whispers and a Softer Dollar

The markets are steady, but the U.S. dollar is slipping on growing bets that the Fed could cut rates soon. Here’s where we stand.

Inflation: Holding steady

CPI is 322.13 with Core CPI at 328.66. Annual inflation (July 2025) is still 2.7%.
Inflation expectations:

• 1 year: 2.59%
• 5 years: 2.13%
• 10 years: 2.11%
• 30 years: 2.30%

What this means for you:
Inflation isn’t flaring up — which is exactly why talk of a September rate cut is heating up.

Rates & Yields: Still high, for now

• Federal Funds Rate: 4.33%
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.29%
• 30-year fixed mortgage: 6.63% (likely staying 6.5–7% through year-end)

What this means for you:
Borrowing is still expensive, but if the Fed does cut, mortgage and loan rates might follow (eventually). Savers, enjoy those higher yields while they last.

Stocks: Modest gains

The S&P 500 closed at 644.89 (+0.34%), with a high of 646.19 and a low of 642.68. Volume: just over 60M shares.

What this means for you:
Investors like the idea of rate cuts — stocks keep inching higher on the possibility.

Key developments

• Dollar drops: A softer inflation reading is fueling speculation the Fed could cut rates next month.
• Fed in focus: Any confirmation of a shift in policy could move markets — and your borrowing costs — fast.

The bottom line

Inflation is calm, stocks are up, and the dollar is down on growing rate cut hopes. Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, but a Fed move could change the landscape.