Markets Today: Calm, for Now

Steady inflation, steady rates, steady markets. The Fed’s holding, mortgage rates dipped a hair, and Wall Street is basically taking a coffee break until the next big headline.

Inflation & Rates

CPI: 322.132
Core CPI: 328.656
Annual inflation: 2.7% (July 2025)

Inflation expectations:

• 1 year: 2.59%
• 5 years: 2.13%
• 10 years: 2.11%
• 30 years: 2.30%

Treasury yields: 1-year at 3.86%, 5-year at 3.77%, 10-year at 4.24%
Fed Funds Rate: 4.33%

What this means for you:
Borrowing is still pricey, saving is still rewarding (for now), and inflation isn’t rocking the boat.

Markets & Mortgages

S&P 500: 644.95 (flat at +0.0093%)
Volume: ~59.3M shares traded
30-year fixed mortgage: 6.58% (down from last week’s 6.63%)

What this means for you:
Your mortgage broker won’t be calling you with celebration emojis, but hey — a drop’s a drop.

The Fed’s Mood

Expectations are for at least three rate cuts this year — but only once inflation inches back toward that magic 2%. The Fed’s confident enough to hold rates steady for now, citing a strong economy and manageable inflation.

What this means for you:
Rate cuts could make borrowing cheaper, but don’t plan the champagne toast yet — the Fed’s still playing “wait and see.”

The Bottom Line

It’s a steady day in market-land: flat stocks, stable inflation, and a tiny mortgage rate dip. The real action will come when the Fed finally decides it’s time to cut — until then, it’s watch-and-wait season.