Markets Today: Calm Before the CPI Storm

Markets were mostly steady today, but tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index release could shake things up. Here’s where things stand before the big reveal.

Inflation: Waiting on the next data point

CPI is sitting at 322.132, with Core CPI (stripping out food and energy) at 328.656. Annual inflation remains at 2.7% as of June 2025.

Inflation expectations are steady:

• 1 year: 2.79%
• 5 years: 2.37% (market: 2.44%)
• 10 years: 2.33% (market: 2.38%)
• 30 years: 2.44%

What this means for you:
We’re in a holding pattern. Tomorrow’s CPI print could either reinforce the “steady inflation” story… or completely rewrite it.

Rates & Yields: Still elevated

• Federal Funds Rate: 4.33%
• Treasury yields: 1 year at 3.93%, 5 years at 3.84%, 10 years at 4.27%
• 30-year fixed mortgage: 6.63%

What this means for you:
If you’re borrowing, costs remain high. If you’re saving, short-term Treasuries and CDs still look attractive. Tomorrow’s CPI could nudge both directions.

Stocks: Slight dip

The S&P 500 closed at 635.92, down 0.20%. Volume came in at just under 59M shares.

What this means for you:
Markets aren’t making big bets ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data. Traders are waiting to see if it gives the Fed any reason to shift its stance.

Key developments

• The Fed is holding rates steady for now.
• Mortgage rates remain well above pandemic-era lows, keeping housing affordability tight.
• Currency markets are watching the Fed closely — a hotter CPI could be bullish for the USD.

The bottom line

Today felt like a “quiet before the storm” kind of session. Inflation and rates are steady, stocks are treading water, and all eyes are on tomorrow’s CPI release. Whatever happens at 8:30 AM ET could set the tone for the rest of the month.